Data sources, update schedules, indicator definitions, and interpretation guidance for all NOVRIX on-chain metrics.
Source for all on-chain Bitcoin metrics: NUPL, MVRV, SOPR, LTH-MVRV, STH-MVRV, SSR, NVT, Supply in Profit, Supply in Loss, Realized Profit, Realized Loss, Hashrate. Full history from 2013. Updated daily.
Fear & Greed Index composite score (0–100). Full daily history from 2018. Updated daily.
BTC and ETH market dominance percentage. Updated daily.
Market cap history for dominance calculation. Updated daily.
On-chain transaction data for whale tracking module. Real-time.
| INDICATOR | SOURCE | SCHEDULE | LATENCY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | Alternative.me | 04:00 UTC daily | ~3h after publish |
| NUPL | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| MVRV Ratio | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| SOPR | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| LTH-MVRV | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| STH-MVRV | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| SSR | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| NVT Ratio | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Supply in Profit | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Supply in Loss | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Realized Profit | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Realized Loss | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Hashrate | BGeometrics | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| BTC Dominance | CMC + CoinGecko | 04:00 UTC daily | ~1h after publish |
| Social Sentiment | CoinGecko | Live / on-demand | Real-time |
| Trending Coins | CoinGecko | Live / on-demand | Real-time |
| Whale Transactions | Etherscan | Live / on-demand | Real-time |
Staleness fallback: if any BGeometrics indicator has not been updated in 36+ hours when the sentiment page is loaded, the platform will initiate an emergency live fetch from BGeometrics before serving data.
Definitions for all on-chain indicators displayed in the NOVRIX Sentiment module.
A composite sentiment score from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). Aggregates volatility, market momentum, social media sentiment, surveys, Bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends data.
Scores below 25 (Extreme Fear) have historically represented accumulation opportunities. The market tends to be oversold at these levels.
Scores above 75 (Extreme Greed) have historically preceded corrections. Risk of overleveraged positions and euphoric buying.
Measures the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss across all Bitcoin UTXOs, expressed as a fraction of market cap. Positive = more holders in profit. Negative = more holders in loss.
NUPL below 0 indicates most holders are underwater — historically strong accumulation signal. Recovery above 0 signals returning confidence.
NUPL above 0.75 (Extreme Greed zone) indicates most supply is deeply in profit — historically correlated with cycle tops.
Market Value to Realized Value ratio. Compares current market cap to realized cap (what holders paid for their coins on average). MVRV > 1 means current price exceeds average cost basis.
MVRV below 1.0 historically signals extreme undervaluation — Bitcoin trading below aggregate cost basis. Strong historical bottom signal.
MVRV above 3.5 has historically correlated with major market tops across multiple cycles.
Ratio of the price at time of spending to price at time of acquisition for all coins moved in a given day. SOPR > 1 means coins are being spent in profit on average.
SOPR below 1.0 during a downtrend, then recovering above 1.0, signals capitulation complete. Mean reversion signal.
SOPR consistently above 1.0 during a rally indicates profit-taking. Rejection below 1.0 after prolonged above confirms trend reversal.
MVRV ratio calculated only for coins held for 155+ days (Long-Term Holders). Filters out short-term speculation, focusing on conviction holders' unrealized P&L.
LTH-MVRV below 1.0 means long-term holders are underwater — historically extreme accumulation zones.
LTH-MVRV above 3.5 indicates long-term holders are sitting on large unrealized gains — historically precedes distribution phases.
MVRV ratio for coins held less than 155 days. Captures the sentiment of recent buyers — those most sensitive to price volatility.
STH-MVRV below 0.8 indicates recent buyers are significantly underwater — capitulation signal.
STH-MVRV above 1.4 indicates recent buyers are in strong profit — elevated sell pressure zone.
Bitcoin market cap divided by total stablecoin supply. Measures the relative buying power available from stablecoin reserves versus the current Bitcoin market cap.
Low SSR (abundant stablecoins relative to BTC market cap) signals substantial dry powder available to buy Bitcoin.
High SSR indicates stablecoin reserves are thin relative to market cap — limited sidelined capital to drive further appreciation.
Bitcoin market cap divided by daily on-chain transaction volume in USD. Analogous to a P/E ratio — measures how the network values its economic throughput.
Low NVT suggests the network is undervalued relative to its transaction activity. Strong fundamental utilization at low price.
High NVT suggests price has outrun network utility. Bitcoin is priced expensively relative to actual economic activity.
Total estimated Bitcoin network computational power in EH/s (exahashes per second). Measures miner commitment and network security.
Rising hashrate signals miners are expanding operations, indicating confidence in long-term price appreciation. Higher security.
Sharp hashrate drops can precede miner capitulation events. Prolonged decline may signal financial stress among miners.
On-chain metrics are powerful analytical tools with known structural limitations that users must understand:
Large exchange cold wallets move coins in ways that trigger false UTXO signals. SOPR and supply metrics are particularly sensitive to exchange operations.
Estimated 3–4 million BTC are permanently lost (Satoshi wallet, early miners). Their presence in realized cap calculations suppresses MVRV and NUPL readings.
BGeometrics publishes data with a 1–2 day lag relative to on-chain events. Our update at 04:00 UTC means the freshest data point is typically yesterday's.
These are pure on-chain spot metrics. Derivatives market dynamics are not captured. Basis, funding rates, and open interest are separate analytical dimensions.
All historical signal accuracy described in this document reflects backward-looking analysis. Markets adapt. Widely-known signals become less reliable as they are traded.